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  • Writer's picturePhilip

Aggregate Agricultural Accounts: Total Factor Productivity dataset.

I have been creating budgets for different crops and wanted to know what the average yield of winter sown Oil Seed Rape (OSR) grown in England actually is.

First online search and a UK Government link providing an Excel data set comparing yields from 1973 to present day as a percentage of 100.  Looking at this UK agriculture is doing great producing more OSR than it did in 1973 but no actual data on yields!  (Total Factor Productivity dataset.)

 

Second search and data published by AHDB.  I note that since 1984 when data sets were first recorded for OSR, average yields have declined from 3.4 t/ha (1984) to 3.1 t/ha (2023). 

 

A third search and more UK Government data.  England, years 2022 and 2023, there are “inconsistencies” with the data so I then looked at 2021 as an end point and 1999 as the start point.

The area grown peaked in 2012 with 755,000 ha. In 2021 only 262,000 ha reported, circa 40% of 2012 cropping area.  Average yields, 2012, 3.4 and 2021 3.1 t/ha.  In total 2,567,000 t compared to 812,200 t produced.

 

In April 2022 it was stated that “the UK consumes almost 2.5 Mt of rapeseed every year as seed, oil, or meal. With pressure on other oilseed imports, this figure is expected to steadily increase year on year as rapeseed meal and oil are suitable substitutions in livestock food and human food production.”

 

We must be importing it but from where?  Ukraine!  Of course with all the farmer protests in other EU countries surrounding exports it must be coming from Ukraine.

Published figures April 2022, Ukraine produces 3,015 Mt of Rapeseed of which 2,700 Mt are exported.  Top markets, No.1 The EU 1.1B$, No.2 Pakistan 0.2B$ No.03 UK 0.2B$. More maths, 78 p for $1.00. 10 year average price for OSR £312.00 that equates to $400.00. $0.2B / 400 = 500,000 t. England, tonnes required minus tonnes produced means a short fall of 1.7 Mt which equates to circa 30% of that missing coming from Ukraine where as England produces 40% of its total requirement.

 

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